{"id":766,"date":"2017-01-09T19:24:39","date_gmt":"2017-01-09T19:24:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/?p=766"},"modified":"2017-01-09T19:24:57","modified_gmt":"2017-01-09T19:24:57","slug":"quickmist-badmaths","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/quickmist-badmaths\/","title":{"rendered":"What&#8217;s the deal with this Nicorette QuickMist ad?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Watch this:<\/p>\n<div class=\"jetpack-video-wrapper\"><span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"616\" height=\"347\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/1O4fN4mrvVA?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-GB&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span><\/div>\n<p>Looks like a great product, huh? A nice little spray you mist into your gob that makes you stop smoking. I&#8217;m not doubting the science behind this. I&#8217;m sure the science is very good. It&#8217;s the maths at the end I don&#8217;t get.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><em>Tackle your cravings fast, making you 150% more likely to quit. For good.<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>150% likely to quit! Wow! So I&#8217;m not only 100% GUARANTEED to quit, but I&#8217;ll also have an extra 50% of quittiness for free as well? I might as well start smoking now!<\/p>\n<p>But of course, that&#8217;s not what it means. It&#8217;s not even what it says. It says &#8220;150%\u00a0<strong>more likely\u00a0<\/strong>to quit.&#8221; But what does\u00a0<em>that\u00a0<\/em>mean?<\/p>\n<p>More likely than what? There&#8217;s no quantifiable unit of quittingness. You can&#8217;t up your quitting stats with a magic mist spray. But they&#8217;ve got this number from somewhere, which means they must have derived it from something.<\/p>\n<p>The most likely candidate is they had two samples of people trying to quit and used one as a control. Of the group that used the QuickMist product, 150% more people ended up quitting. Great.<\/p>\n<p>No. Not great. You stupid idiot.<\/p>\n<p>I still don&#8217;t know what &#8220;150% more&#8221; means. Let&#8217;s work some numbers.<\/p>\n<p>Say both groups were 100 people. In the control group (ie. the willpower alone group), 50 people successfully gave up. So BY MATHS, we can figure out that in the NICORETTE group&#8230;<\/p>\n<pre>50 * 150% gave up, which = 75. So 25 more people.<\/pre>\n<h1>BUT WAIT&#8230;<\/h1>\n<p>50 * 150% isn&#8217;t &#8220;150% more&#8221; is it? That&#8217;s 150%\u00a0<strong>of<\/strong>\u00a050. &#8220;150% more&#8221; sounds like an increase-of 150%.<\/p>\n<p><em>are you following all this<\/em><\/p>\n<p>So what we&#8217;d need to do is take the 150% amount and then add that onto the original amount. EASY.<\/p>\n<pre>(50 * 150%) + 50 =\u00a0125<\/pre>\n<p>Fantastic! The QuickMist product is so effective that not only did every single person in the 100-person group quit smoking, but 25 other people also showed up and quit\u00a0too!<\/p>\n<p>This is what in philosophy we call a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Reductio_ad_absurdum\">reductio ad absurdum.<\/a>\u00a0Our conclusion is clearly\u00a0ridiculous, so we&#8217;ve made an error in reasoning somewhere. But where?<\/p>\n<p>Maybe our numbers our wrong. Let&#8217;s try a different scenario. Imagine there&#8217;s originally only ONE person quitting in the willpower-only control group. In the QuickMist group, ((1*150%)+1) would quit, which is 2.5.<\/p>\n<p>But why wouldn&#8217;t they just say &#8220;You&#8217;re 2.5 times as likely to quit with&#8230;&#8221; rather than &#8220;150% times more?&#8221; Sure, 150 is a bigger number than 2.5, but you can also express that as &#8220;250%&#8221;. Did they maybe think that 250% was too big a number for people to comprehend? Why else wouldn&#8217;t they go for the bigger number?<\/p>\n<p>Maybe it&#8217;s because they don&#8217;t like &#8220;as likely&#8221;. &#8220;As likely&#8221; is less powerful sounding than &#8220;more likely&#8221;, even though it&#8217;s preceded by a big ol&#8217; percentage. Why bother trying to give up with this product if you&#8217;re still only something-something\u00a0<em>as likely<\/em> as someone just trying really hard on their own?<\/p>\n<p>So basically, I think they meant &#8220;50% more&#8221; but that was too low. They saw that &#8220;50% more&#8221; = &#8220;150% of&#8221; and did some slight-of-hand\u00a0to replace the word &#8220;of&#8221; with &#8220;more.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>In other words, the only thing this product helps you quit is your grasp on the principles of mathematics!!!!<\/p>\n<h3>Behold, the magic of marketing.<\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Watch this: Looks like a great product, huh? A nice little spray you mist into your gob that makes you stop smoking. I&#8217;m not doubting the science behind this. I&#8217;m sure the science is very good. It&#8217;s the maths at the end I don&#8217;t get. Tackle your cravings fast, making you 150% more likely to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":true,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41],"tags":[131,329,330,331],"class_list":["post-766","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-opinion","tag-advertising","tag-marketing","tag-mathematics","tag-nicorette"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What&#039;s the deal with this Nicorette QuickMist ad?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/quickmist-badmaths\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What&#039;s the deal with this Nicorette QuickMist ad?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Watch this: Looks like a great product, huh? A nice little spray you mist into your gob that makes you stop smoking. I&#8217;m not doubting the science behind this. I&#8217;m sure the science is very good. It&#8217;s the maths at the end I don&#8217;t get. 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Here are some examples: Smoke machine Burning toast Blowing out a candle (there's only smoke when the fire is extinguished) Smoke Monster from Lost Smokey Bear Smokey Robinson Smokey and the Bandit Smoke bombs Referring to a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;opinion&quot;","block_context":{"text":"opinion","link":"https:\/\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/category\/opinion\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":263,"url":"https:\/\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/ted-talks\/","url_meta":{"origin":766,"position":1},"title":"Why I don&#8217;t like TED talks","author":"cookywook","date":"January 25, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"I've only ever seen two\u00a0TED talks that I liked. Here's the first: https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=jb09RYnSNOw That's one of my comedy heroes, Ryan North. He's talking about what it'd be helpful to know if you ever got sent back in time for some reason. So it's useless information, practically, but it's an entertaining\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;opinion&quot;","block_context":{"text":"opinion","link":"https:\/\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/category\/opinion\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Screen Shot 2016-01-15 at 09.55.25","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Screen-Shot-2016-01-15-at-09.55.25.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Screen-Shot-2016-01-15-at-09.55.25.png?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Screen-Shot-2016-01-15-at-09.55.25.png?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Screen-Shot-2016-01-15-at-09.55.25.png?resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Screen-Shot-2016-01-15-at-09.55.25.png?resize=1050%2C600 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Screen-Shot-2016-01-15-at-09.55.25.png?resize=1400%2C800 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":437,"url":"https:\/\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/richards-2016-week-one\/","url_meta":{"origin":766,"position":2},"title":"Richard&#8217;s 2016: Week One","author":"cookywook","date":"January 7, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Happy new year! It\u2019s 2016 and my \u201cbig dumb life project\u201d is officially up and running: Richard's 2016! To recap:\u00a0I\u2019m living each day of the year according to the \u2018day of the year\u2019 it is. It\u2019s not been the most spectacular start, but here\u2019s the rundown of how\u00a0the first week\u00a0has\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;richard's 2016&quot;","block_context":{"text":"richard's 2016","link":"https:\/\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/category\/richards-2016\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/2016-01-05-23.15.14.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/2016-01-05-23.15.14.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/2016-01-05-23.15.14.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/2016-01-05-23.15.14.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/2016-01-05-23.15.14.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/2016-01-05-23.15.14.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":2122,"url":"https:\/\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/facebook-marketplace-is-full-of-terrifying-haunted-items\/","url_meta":{"origin":766,"position":3},"title":"Facebook Marketplace is full of terrifying haunted items","author":"cookywook","date":"November 28, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Earlier this year, I wrote about the hellscape that is Facebook Marketplace. And that is still very true. But I also discovered some listings that worried me. In particular, this ugly bloody doll... ...and this free 40s haunted wardrobe. 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BOOM! (Or should I say... BANG!?). I hinted before\u00a0that I don't think much of TBBT (The Big Bang Theory), and I'd like to take some time explore why that actually is. Also\u00a0I'm super self-indulgent and this is my\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;television&quot;","block_context":{"text":"television","link":"https:\/\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/category\/television\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Screen Shot 2015-01-03 at 20.37.25","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Screen-Shot-2015-01-03-at-20.37.25.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":952,"url":"https:\/\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/review-thegrid-io\/","url_meta":{"origin":766,"position":5},"title":"Review: thegrid.io","author":"cookywook","date":"June 10, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Making a website is hard. That's why I use Squarespace for mine. I've tried learning how to do it myself before, and the results were.... ugly. But what if there was another way? Not having to learn to do it yourself, but not sticking to a boring old template either?\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;technology&quot;","block_context":{"text":"technology","link":"https:\/\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/category\/technology\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/Screen-Shot-2017-06-10-at-11.18.38-1.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/Screen-Shot-2017-06-10-at-11.18.38-1.png?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/Screen-Shot-2017-06-10-at-11.18.38-1.png?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/Screen-Shot-2017-06-10-at-11.18.38-1.png?resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/Screen-Shot-2017-06-10-at-11.18.38-1.png?resize=1050%2C600 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/Screen-Shot-2017-06-10-at-11.18.38-1.png?resize=1400%2C800 4x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/766","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=766"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/766\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=766"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=766"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cookywook.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=766"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}